'In the long run, India's strong growth story and reforms to make assets globally attractive will determine the rupee's resilience.'
India and the UK on Thursday inked a landmark free trade agreement (FTA) that will cut tariffs on British whisky, cars and an array of items, besides boosting bilateral trade by around $34 billion annually.
The 25 per cent US tariffs, plus a penalty for Russian imports, could dent India's GDP growth by 30 basis points in the current fiscal, but the higher duty is unlikely to significantly affect India's domestic demand-driven economy, Barclays said on Thursday. If the 25 per cent tariff, announced by US President Donald Trump on Wednesday, is implemented from August 1, the effective average US import tariff on Indian goods will rise to 20.6 per cent in trade-weighted terms, as per Barclays estimates.
The government on Tuesday announced setting up of hubs to promote exports through e-commerce medium in public-private-partnership (PPP) mode and initially 10-15 hubs will be established. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that these hubs, under a seamless regulatory and logistic framework, will facilitate trade and export-related services under one roof. "To enable MSMEs (micro, small and medium enterprises) and traditional artisans to sell their products in international markets, e-commerce export hubs will be set up in PPP mode," she said.
Adani Enterprises' subsidiary Kutch Copper (KCL) and Australian Securities Exchange-listed Caravel Minerals on Thursday signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding (MoU) for collaboration on the Caravel Copper Project in Western Australia's Murchison region, for an undisclosed amount, according to a joint statement.
Reliance Industries' refining earnings will remain steady, supported by its position as India's largest importer of Russian crude and favourable global supplies, according to analysts at JM Financial and Goldman Sachs. Reliance imported more Russian barrels than any other Indian refiner in the past eight months, according to data from Bloomberg/Kpler.
From the Sensex firms, HCL Tech, Infosys, Power Grid, Tata Consultancy Services, HDFC Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Bharti Airtel and ICICI Bank were among the major laggards. However, Titan, Larsen & Toubro, Maruti and Axis Bank were among the gainers.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday said India is likely continue to face challenges in raising longer-term growth potential and creating enough jobs for its young population in the absence of higher trade openness. In its report on South Asia sovereigns, Moody's said compared with other South Asian economies, India appears to be in a better position to deepen its integration in global value chains, attract FDI and increase exports. The country has better macroeconomic fundamentals, more stable politics and a more developed export sector.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra, and Deputy Governors Poonam Gupta, T Rabi Sankar, Swaminathan J, and S C Murmu on Friday addressed issues during the post-policy media interaction.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday upped India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 6.5 per cent, citing lower crude prices, monetary easing and normal monsoon, and said the ongoing geopolitical tensions are unlikely to put a "significant pressure" on the rupee or inflation.
India's current account deficit (CAD) may dip further in the March quarter of FY24 as pressure from the negative net exports during the January-March period eased to an 11-quarter high. A part of the gross domestic product (GDP) data, net export- which is usually negative for India - captures the difference between exports and imports of both goods and services, while the CAD data, released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), also factors in private transfer receipts.
Speaking at the 'Samudra se Samruddhi' event, where he inaugurated and laid foundation stones of projects worth Rs 34,200 crore, Modi said all the problems of India have only one solution, and that is self-reliance.
While participants in the domestic financial market are expecting a 25 basis-point policy repo rate cut in the December meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), economists remain torn between a reduction in rate cut and a pause.
'An asset must generate income. Equities yield dividends, bonds pay coupons, deposits give interest, and real estate earns rent.' 'Gold, silver, and even Bitcoin produce no income, they merely store value. So, they should not be compared to productive assets.'
GST 2.0 may cushion consumers against US tariffs, but like the 2019 corporate tax cut, it risks being another tactical fix rather than a structural growth strategy, expects Debashis Basu.
While growth in India is largely domestic and hence the overall GDP effect may not be more than 0.15-0.2%, but overall trade will be impacted due to every country going back to the drawing board, points out Madan Sabnavis.
India would neither succumb to the Americans on issues of national security, such as its defence ties with Russia, nor cede ground on its domestic interests in the agriculture and dairy sectors.
Goldman Sachs is bullish about Indian aerospace and defence, preferring private companies over public sector units (PSUs) as the country ramps up its export target for the sector to Rs 50,000 crore by FY29 from Rs 23,600 crore last year. The American investment bank's top 'buy' recommendations include Solar Industries, Bharat Electronics, Data Patterns and PTC Industries, while Bharat Dynamics is rated 'sell'.
In a statement, the bank said Miasole, a solar-energy company in Santa Clara, California, has exported thin-film solar panels to a solar photovoltaic project in Rajasthan
Nepal's decision to ban the import of non-essential items amid depleting forex reserves may hit Indian exports. The country's central bank - Nepal Rastra Bank - last week instructed commercial banks not to open letters of credit (LCs) for importing non-essential items. This is to prevent further decline of the country's foreign exchange reserves. However, it has not issued any formal communication yet.
Gold imports more than doubled in August to a record high of $10.06 billion, mainly on account of a drastic cut in customs duty and ongoing festive demand, according to the Commerce Ministry data. Gold imports stood at $4.93 billion in August 2023. On record high imports, Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal said that the tariff rates on gold have been reduced drastically so that smuggling and other activities can come down.
India should convert the Trump threat to an India opportunity, re-embracing a more liberal trade regime as a way of reviving manufacturing output and exports.
'It's important for India to think about areas where it wants the US to move.' 'We can be far more innovative in what we ask the US.' 'Given that there's a package deal, why not do it?'
The Trump trade shock is a chance to push long-overdue reforms, rather than tinker with tariffs to appease the US, suggests M Govinda Rao.
The UK government on Sunday announced that it will support "iconic British brand" Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) with a loan guarantee of up to 1.5 billion pounds to give certainty to the Tata Motors owned carmaker's supply chain following a devastating cyber-attack. The loan will come from a commercial bank, backed by the Department for Business and Trade's (DBT) Export Development Guarantee (EDG), provided by export credit agency UK Export Finance, to be paid back over five years.
The US Trade Representative noted that India's average applied tariff rate stood at 17% per cent, the highest of any major world economy.
The CBI successfully managed to get Monika Kapoor extradited from the United States, ending her 25-year flight from justice. She is accused of economic offenses including forgery and fraud.
'That way you're not hostage just to US sort of exports to India.'
The Indian economy could remain less affected by global trade wars than other countries because the two engines of domestic growth - consumption and investment - are likely to face a limited impact from such headwinds, according to an article on the 'State of the Economy' in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) bulletin, released on Tuesday.
India continues to remain an attractive investment destination and rise in repatriation of funds is a sign of a mature market where foreign investors can enter and exit smoothly, Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra said on Friday. Gross foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows remained strong, rising by around 14 per cent to $81 billion in 2024-25, from $71.3 billion a year ago.
India-Turkiye ties are strained over Ankara's Islamabad tilt, its arms links with Pakistan, and fallout from the Pahalgam terror attack.
Moody's Ratings on Tuesday said India has a lower overall exposure to the US relative to others in the APAC region, although certain sectors such as food, textiles and pharmaceutical products face risks. Moody's said most companies in its rated portfolio are domestic-focused with limited exposure to the US market.
'Many of these issues will be resolved within 6 months because the US economy has started unravelling.'
India's exports are unlikely to get an immediate boost from a depreciating rupee, which touched an all-time low on Monday, driven by rising commodity prices. The rupee fell to 76.97 against the dollar earlier in the day, settling 1.05 per cent weaker than the previous close. Oil prices soared to their highest since 2008 on Monday at $139 per barrel, after the US and European allies explored a Russian oil import ban, while delays in the potential return of Iranian crude oil to global markets increased supply fears.
Export-Import Bank of India plans to raise Rs 3,000 crore (Rs 30 billion) through various financial instruments, including bonds and term deposits and foreign currency resources, totaling $800 million in 2005-06.
India is looking to develop alternative export markets for tea such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the US, Japan and Tunisia in view of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, people aware of the matter said. Meetings are being held with buyers in some of these countries in virtual mode, with the help of diplomatic missions located there. Similar meetings for the remaining countries have also been planned.
Among Sensex firms, Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech, Eternal, Axis Bank, Maruti, Tata Steel, HDFC Bank and Asian Paints were the gainers. However, Adani Ports, Trent, Tata Motors, Hindustan Unilever and NTPC were among the laggards.
Among the 30 Sensex companies, Mahindra & Mahindra, Titan, HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, UltraTech Cement, Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank, Tata Motors and Asian Paints were the biggest gainers. On the other hand, Tech Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro, HCL Technologies, Larsen & Toubro and State Bank of India were among the major laggards.
The decision comes following the appeal by the Delta Airlines, Inc and the Airline Pilots Association of a lower court decision in July 2012 that determined that the Exim Bank improperly approved financing for purchases of certain Boeing aircraft by Air India.
From the Sensex firms, Tata Steel, Power Grid, NTPC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Reliance Industries and Adani Ports were among the biggest gainers. Asian Paints and Tata Consultancy Services were the only laggards.
